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Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

☆ The former head of a $20 billion portfolio warns stocks will fall at least another 20% as investors become complacent about a recession and the Fed vows to keep rates elevated
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A hawkish Fed, as a result, will push the economy into recession, he argues. "That's not the Fed cutting to three percent, Adam, it's the Fed cutting to 2% or 1%." He cited the S&P 500 falling 20% from late-2000 to mid-2002 even as the Fed cut rates from 6.5% to 1.75% as precedent. Many Wall Street banks — including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and UBS — see a recession ahead for the US economy. The path of inflation will influence the path the US economy takes this year.

☆ Analysis: Italy's rates clash with ECB a sign of things to come for euro zone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Euro zone governments offering cost-of-living subsidiesECB has warned it won't compensate for "policy errors"Clashes seen widening beyond ItalyFRANKFURT, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Attacks by Italy's new government on the European Central Bank over its plans to raise borrowing costs may be a sign of things to come for a euro zone struggling with inflation and debt. It also showed the ECB did not fear penalising the most indebted of the 19 euro zone countries, Italy among them, which tend to see their borrowing costs rise disproportionately when credit becomes more expensive. "The ECB is clearly ready to take risks with fragmentation in the euro area," Gilles Moec, chief economist at AXA Investment Managers, said. With bigger deficits to refinance and the ECB raising interest rates while also winding down its bond purchases, markets have pushed up yields across the euro zone and particularly for the weakest borrowers, such as Italy. But the ECB has been clear it won't be used to rescue countries that have made imprudent "policy errors".

☆ Analysis: Top central bankers fear breaking economy if they raise rates too fast
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

STUBBORNLY HIGHBut stubbornly high inflation is making central bankers' job incredibly tricky. While there is nothing central bankers can do about present inflation rates, the mere optics of runaway prices made a "pivot" more difficult to justify. This requires an extraordinary balancing act by central bankers: persuading the market that they are serious about bringing down inflation without choking the economy. "The Fed needs to open a path towards smaller interest rate hikes without sounding too dovish," Christian Scherrmann, U.S. economist at DWS, said. The change of tone was minimal but it was enough for investors to start pricing in smaller hikes further down the road.

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